Progress towards sustainable fishing

Depletion of fish stocks is important because 1 billion people rely on them for their main protein intake. 32% of stocks are depleted or recovering from depletion; but this is not solely a  food problem. Fishing is a major source of  employment, especially in the developing world,  and hundreds of millions of people are in communities which depend, directly or indirectly, on fisheries for their livelihood.

The International Sustainabilty Unit (ISU), instigated by Prince Charles of the UK, recently conducted 50 case studies around the world and reports the findings in Towards global sustainable fisheries (February 2012). The results are encouraging. They show that when a fishery which is declining through over fishing is restructured for sustainabilty it not only secures fish stocks but improves the lot of all the stakeholders:

• The employees get a higher and more secure income as well as safer working conditions.
• The fishing community, often a poor one, prospers from the flow of money into it.
• The world economy benefits (especially the developing world).
• The sea ecology becomes more diverse and stable.
• There is more fish to eat.

The World Bank estimates that by managing fisheries differently they could contribute an extra $50 billion p.a. to world GDP. At present they contribute to the  tune of about $275 billion (US) p.a. (0.4% of world GDP), so this would bring its contribution up to about $325 billion (0.5 %  of GDP). And fishing is important in preventing and reducing poverty in developing countries. For example, the Ben Tre Clam fishery in Vietnam after transition to sustainability supports 13,000 households, compared to 9,000 in 2007.

The ISU’s aim was to put together a tool kit of ways to achieve sustainabilty in any given fishery, recognising that each one is unique and that no one solution fits all. The economic benefits emerge from the move towards sustainabilty. Pragmatic regulation can reduce the catch, get the support of the fishing industry, increase profit margins and require individual fishermen to work less hard and more safely.

One finding which stood out was the importance of the quota system. In the past much conflict and chaos has resulted from issuing a group with a quota for a particular marine species and expecting each trawler, say, to take its chances on what share of the quota it could catch. There was a mad scramble to make sure that your boat got as much out of the sea as possible before the others used up the overall weight quota. If instead each fishing team gets a guaranteed income the tendency towards destructive competition is greatly reduced. Introducing such a system to the Pacific halibut fishery lengthened the fishing season and increased the value of the fish sold from $1 to $7 per pound.

Prince Charles refers to a debilitating fatalism. Because of marine pollution problems and the selfish nature of some individuals within the fishing industry (as in any field of human activity) some observers seem to regard the situation as hopeless. It is true that rising temperature and acidity of the sea, ever-increasing run-off from industrial farming and the global dispersion of ingestible but undigestible microplastics are serious factors when added to the stress of over-fishing; but progress in arresting and reversing fish stock decline is being made.

 The ISU study has shown how it can be done at a practical level and since all the stake holders benefit there is every likelihood of getting the necessary legislation and enforcement worldwide within a decade or less. Momentum on this front, I believe, will help raise the morale and strengthen the resolution of those fighting on the anti-pollution front.

John
author 2077 AD (being revised)

The world going forward: comments on Kasparov

Garry Kasparov, renowned as a chess champion, is chairman of the United Civil Front, a pro-democracy organisation in Russia, and is co-author of a forthcoming  book The Blueprint: reviving innovation, rediscovering risk and rescuing the free market.

In the January issue of Prospect  (subscription only) he gives a one page outline of some ideas which presumably will be dealt with at length in the book.

Here are four of them plus my comments in italics:

• Implement a global Magna Carta to bind the world’s democracies together in the face of dictatorships and terror. This would replace the UN, which at present gives power to nations which fail to meet basic democratic standards. Some western liberals think that a nation-state should be free to adopt a non-democratic way of life. This means giving power to those who do not believe in the freedoms which have emerged from the Enlightenment in the Judeo-Christian world.  Once such people acquire the technology of destruction  no country is safe (remember World War II?).

• Launch a global trillion dollar alternative energy initiative to tackle the problem of finite fossil fuel reserves, problems with nuclear power and indefinitely increasing demand for energy. This would create new jobs, stimulate R&D  and hopefully allow a supranational grid on the African continent, where a billion people have inadequate access to the power needed to build a society where there is no hunger, no thirst, good health services, freedom from drudgery, good communication and a rich variety of education for all.

• Establish bases on the Moon and Mars to inspire the dreams of humanity and encourage innovation. Perhaps, in addition, an asteroid defence system could be developed internationally. The probability of a serious asteroid impact is extremely small but the damage done to civilisation, if not to much of the life on our planet, would be enormous. In any case, cosmic projects of the type proposed by Kasparov would help break down frontiers of nation, race, class and religion, raising our awareness that we all share a common humanity (deriving, I believe, from our Creator).

• Replace financial engineering with real engineering. No one with a degree should be allowed go into financial engineering. This would lead to the required increase in the quantity and quality of scientists and technologists. Financial systems should be kept simple enough to prevent smoke-and- mirror tricks with oceans and rivers of money. Accountancy should be reinvented as an almost sacred profession, where knowing the truth about the financial state of a bank, company, government or any other organisation is recognised as a necessity for a stable, fair and prosperous society. Science, engineering and education should also revere truth, rather than what gets you a research grant or a pay cheque or the acclaim of your peers.

All this would cost money, but only a fraction of that spent on rescuing a dysfunctional banking system and making ordnance. I don’t pretend that getting from here to where I am suggesting we (as a race) need to be is not a big problem, but this problem pales into insignificance when compared to the problems we would face if the former one is ignored.

John

Author, 2077 AD

Kepler 22-b: how Earth-like?

Kepler-22b is the first exoplanet to be discovered which has 3 basic characteristics fairly similar to those of Earth:

Size: not too different - 2.4 times the diameter and 7.1 times the volume, assuming it is spherical. Its mass is not given on my Exoplanet iPhone app presumably because of the way it was detected.

Parent star: yellow dwarf,  similar to our sun (but G5 as opposed to G2V)

Orbit:  in the ‘habitable’ zone. If it had our atmosphere its surface temperature would be a comfortable, life-supporting 22 deg C

From  the Exoplanet i-phone app, the orbit seems to be circular since its eccentricity is listed as zero; but I’m wondering if this is a mistake because I’ve not come across any media reports which highlight this. A fairly circular, rather than highly elliptical, orbit is quite significant because it is a necessary (though far from sufficient) condition for advanced carbon-based life to develop. Too oval-shaped a path round the sun results in extremes of temperature which would probably limit the range of life forms which could be established, or even rule out any at all.

If the temperature could be directly measured and turned out to be anything like 22 deg C it would be headline news because it would probably mean it had an Earth-like atmosphere, and our atmosphere is a product of the mix of animals and plants on its surface over billions of years as well as plate tectonics and protection from comic rays. In fact to be habitable in the sense of having life as we know it the planet would have to have life on it in the first place to produce the right temperature range. One might call this habitable zone tautology. The conditions for life are produced by life. A planet needs life on it to produce the right temperature, along with the right astronomical conditions, but it needs the right temperature to sustain life.  But as stated elsewhere on this blog (see Our precious planet  and Earth-like planets: is the universe teaming with life?  ) a wide range of conditions have to be met for life to have a chance of  evolving. Since writing those posts  I’ve come across additional conditions and will try to put together a more exhaustive list for a future posting.

As these exoplanet discoveries roll in there are three questions to keep in mind regarding the frequency of extraterrestrial life:

• How many planets apart from Earth, if any, have the necessary surface conditions for life of even the most elementary kind to get started (anaerobic bacteria etc., which don’t breathe oxygen)?

• How many planets, if any,  have the necessary conditions for these to evolve into higher, oxygen-breathing forms, perhaps culminating in self-conscious intelligent beings?

• How many, if any, already have advanced extraterrestrial life on them?

So the first step is to look at our own solar system, preferably by manned exploration. If bacteria or other life forms are found, say, on Mars or below the ice on the Jovian satellite Europa, it will indicate that bacteria may be common in the universe but that very special conditions are needed for it to evolve into something more exciting. It could even be that dormant bacteria are generated in some extraordinary way by stellar or interstellar processes then pushed by light pressure through the universe until they reach a truly Earth-like planet , a process known as panspermia– although it is still possible that the Earth alone is the magic crucible of creation. It will certainly be worth continuing with SETI, although hopefully in a more imaginative way than looking for modulated radio waves.

If no bacteria or, even viruses, are found anywhere else in our solar system it will point to life here being truly unique unless some other form of non-biological life beyond our imagination and powers of detection has evolved.

I’m sure some of the readers of this post know more about astrobiology than me so please use the comments box  so we can all benefit from your input. Alternatively just send an email to the address below.

John

Author, 2077 AD

cosmik.jo@gmail.com