Transition Towns and C40 Cities

About 3.5 billion people live in an urban environment out of a world total of 7 billion. Not only is this total rising fast but  the consumption of resources and production of waste per person is rising, thereby putting a dangerous stress on our biosphere. So it is good to know that we do not have to rely wholly on governments to deal with this problem - two worldwide initiatives at local community and city level have been under way for several years.

TRANSITION TOWNS

These are led from the bottom up, and range from villages to cities.

Transition towns  started about 8 years ago when Kinsale Town Council (Ireland) adopted a plan to integrate human activity with natural surroundings. A couple of years later Totnes in Devon, UK, developed the idea further. Since then the movement has taken off worldwide. There are now over 300 officially recognised Transition Towns in the USA, UK, Ireland, Italy, Canada, Australia, New Zealand  and Chile.

The idea of sustainable communities grew out of the permaculture concept  in which high yielding fruit and vegetable plots are cultivated in cities, so that whole urban communities can avoid depending on the energy-intensive import of food.  The plots can be, for example, in window boxes, on waste ground, in gardens  or on the roofs of offices. Low energy high tech life styles, recyling and efficent waste disposal together form  part of the concept.

There is no fixed way to run a TT but one of the intentions is to bring more cohesion across the social spectrum during dislocation when oil production peaks and starts to decline while demand continues to rise. 

This approach to living should have an even wider appeal if food, energy and waste disposal costs escalate worldwide.

C40 CITIES

These adopt a variety of measures, each suited to a particular urban situation and are led from the top by mayors and urban managers.

in 2006 some 40 cities in various countries, having a combined  population of over 300 million,  signed to join the C40, known as the Large Cities Climate Leadership Group. 18 additional cities have joined the scheme. The USA, e.g., has ten C40 cities: Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle, Austin, Houston and New Orleans.  With most of the projected growth in world population concentrated in cities the need for more sustainable ways of living in them is particularly pressing.

Examples: switching from private cars to greener, more efficient public transport or cycling, roof gardens, retrofitting of homes and offfices for energy efficiency, composting, recycling, and energy generation from waste.

As with transition towns the fact that adopting green measures means lowering the cost of living is a great incentive. In the C40 case much of the cost saving will show up in local tax reductions – or at least the increases in taxes will be less than they would have been.

So overall we can be grateful that these two worldwide movements are equipping us to withstand not only food shortages, energy shortfalls and climate change but are in a sense improving the fabric of society and setting up new community structures for solving a whole range of problems that could arise in future.

John

Author, 2077 AD

Wanted - water in the right place at the right time

 As the world population grows and the consumption per capita also grows, fresh water is going to be increasingly in demand; not only for drinking but for sanitation and hygiene. Yet droughts in some parts and extreme rainfall in others, or even the two extremes in a given place, are making reliable, clean water supply difficult. Some 900 million people have inadequate access to drinking water while those having bad water-related sanitation or waste disposal number 2.5 billion. According to the World Bank 88% of all waterborne diseases derive from water supplies which are in some way inadequate.

What are the chances of solving this problem? In the long term quite good. It is expected that within a few decades water will become as expensive as oil is today and this means it will become viable to spend money on supplying, conserving and distributing it. But how many have to suffer or die in the mean time? Can we wait for the 'market' to solve this?

 Here are some possibilities:

CHINA

Lake Baikal in Russia is fed by 365 rivers and contains 20% of the world’s fresh water and there is no reason in principle why this can’t be piped into and around China, where some 2 out of 3 cities are short of water.  Plans for this are being made but as yet there have been no decisions. It could also supply other parts of the world. China is making good progress with wind turbine and solar cell electricity, so the power needed for pumping can be produced without relying on fossil fuels .

AFRICA

Desalination using solar energy could supply water for irrigation and drinking in Africa. The method involves forcing salt water through membranes and this needs energy which can come from solar thermal power generation. A  large European consortium is planning to generate electricity for the European grid using steam driven turbine generators, the steam coming from solar heating plants in North Africa. Siemens, a German engineering company which is part of the consortium, has found a way of reducing by well over 50% the amount of energy needed to turn seawater into drinking water (0.5% salt or less) and has already put this into practice in Singapore.

INDIA AND PAKISTAN

The monsoon rainfalls are becoming increasingly heavy. It should be possible to conserve the water by diverting it into aquifers and reservoirs for use throughout the year. Political, ethnic, sectarian and religious conflicts are the chief obstacle to the large engineering projects needed. Corruption, poor management and inadequate or non-existent waste disposal  are thought to be the main causes of present water problems, although extreme weather events are not helping, the current floods in South Pakistan being even worse than the those in 2010.

Towing of icebergs, which are made of fresh water, to the coasts of countries where water is in short supply is another possibility which is becoming increasingly viable, although distribution inland will still be a challenge.

Combining these measures with more sparing use of this precious gift CAN solve the problem. In the last analysis it is a question of human will for good or evil.

John

Author, 2077 AD

Libya: the state of progress

The National Transition Council (NTC) is emerging as the centre to which the world, via the UN and the unfreezing of its foreign assets, is conferring legitimacy and power. 

The NTC is headed by Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the justice minister who escaped from the Gaddafi government and organised the protests in Benghazi which grew into a violent revolution. The NTC comprises about 30 human rights lawyers and Jalil has shown leadership by insisting that he be tried for his part in the Gaddafi regime as well as threatening to resign if any of the 40 rebel forces (katibas) engage in revenge attacks.

After being in Benghazi since the start of the revolution the NTC are beginning to move into the capital, Tripoli and only a few centres of resistance remain (Sirte, Bani Walid, Jufra and Sabha). How long they keep fighting depends, possibly, on how much they trust their enemies to treat them humanely.

What are the chances of a stable representative government with law and order prevailing once military conquest is decisive enough to make this tenable?

Proposed timescale for establishing a new government.

The following times are taken from whatever date the NTC declares victory.

• 30 days – interim government formed by negotiation within this period.
• 8 months – multi-party elections.
• 20 months – by when a new constitution is to be agreed.

Causes for hope:

• The NTC was appointed in consultation with tribal and revolutionary leaders.
•  The UN is unfreezing funds, the IMF has recognised the NTC and oil revenue could resume within months.
•  There is a lot of political and diplomatic support on tap from the West.
•  The attack on each town was typically done ‘democratically’ in the sense that the invading rebel force coordinated its action with an internal uprising.
•  A substantial number of checkpoints have been dismantled.
•  Rebels with no jobs to go to may join a national army rather than engage in insurgency.
• The old army, police and civil service are to be kept on. Police are already returning to their posts in large numbers. (This avoids a major mistake made in Iraq, where these sources of order and administration were cast out onto the streets.)

Causes for concern:

•  Some African immigrants and pro-Gaddafi mercenaries have been killed by rebels. Presumably they were rogue attacks rather than in any way systematic and so the consensus is that Jalil should not resign.
•  Huge quantities of weapons, missiles and bullets have gone missing (including tens of thousands of SAM missiles). These will inevitably fall into the hands of insurgents and terrorists worldwide – not just disaffected Libyans.
•  Katibas were the revolutionary forces derived from various towns, sects and tribes, and were privately organised and funded. They appear reluctant to submit to a unified command. 
•  ‘Revolutionary committees’ used during the revolt were informers and these may find it difficult to regain the trust of their neighbours.
•  Many of the fighters became exhilarated, as is all too obvious from the constant firing of AK47s into the air. Some may be reluctant to settle down to the dull, hard work of reconstructing Libya. It is much easier to destroy than to create.
•  Electricity and water supplies are sparse and unreliable.
•  Civil servants are not yet being paid.
•  Other Arab regimes will be keen to finance insurgency.

If an Islamic form of a democracy can be achieved this would be a model for other countries in Africa and the Middle East, although there could be a high price to pay in human suffering if the existing monarchs and dictators are to be disposed.

On the other hand, it is possible that the groundswell of pressure for change from the world as a whole and the majority of people living in these countries could be so large, that their rulers would flee without resistance or seek a stake in a political system which they can see is inevitable.

Let us pray.

Main sources: Economist, BBC website, BBC World Service

John

Author, 2077 AD