China: a new Cultural Revolution?

What happens in China is crucial to world peace. The stability of the entire developed and developing world will largely depend on how it behaves in the future. It is buying up resources of all kinds – agriculture, minerals, energy and labour in many parts of the world -  as its population’s living standards grow. See, e.g., the BBC2 TV series 'The Chinese Are Coming'.

China has 10,000 R&D staff working on high speed train technology. It is rapidly supplanting Japan and Germany, with its latest prototype running at over 300 mph. According to a BBC World Service report China will soon have more track than the rest of the world put together, thereby opening up the rural areas to economic development and providing work as well as linking up with Europe.

This is just one example of a range of new leaps forward. There are numerous other technologies where China is either already ahead of the West or coming up fast:

• Nanotechnology (5000 researchers, largest of any country)
• Zhongguancun in Beijing, is trying to emulate Silicon Valley
• Non fossil fuel technology – wind turbines, solar voltaic generation, nuclear
• Life science as a precursor to medicine and biotechnology
• Space exploration

The Chinese people have been very inventive at times through history (e.g. gunpowder and magnetic compasses). Possibly they have been held back by a culture and philosophy not conducive to the thriving of science and technology.  Now their rapid advances are being achieved in two ways.

First, the West are planting the seeds of R&D growth into the Chinese society. When a western firm wants to sell in China it has to set up its R&D effort there, as well as manufacturing, and train indigenous engineers and scientists. The technology itself is also directly copied and emulated, frequently with Intellectual Property Rights transferred.

There is also another way that China is competing with the West, which is to follow the example of the peer reviewed academic research which arguably started with the publication of Philosophical Transactions in England in 1665 and led to an exponential growth in scientific knowledge, a fact of which the world only became aware in the 1960s. Many Chinese academics have for decades been working in US and European universities, and can see the effectiveness of the methods used.

However, to do this they need to eliminate misrepresentation in their research papers (see BBC Knowledge magazine, Jan/Feb 2011, p.33) and this in turn requires a reverence for truth, something of which the Chinese Communist Party appears to be only too aware. They are also looking for a self perpetuating ethical system more rooted in the search for truth and more permissive of creativity and innovation than Taoism or Confucianism.  Is it a coincidence that this officially atheist regime is turning a blind eye to the rapid growth of Christianity, the very religion which provided an environment conducive to the growth of science and invention in the West, because God is rational, creative and reveres the truth, and we are made in his image.

There are now estimated to be 100 million Christians in China, more than the 70 million members of the Communist Party. Soon 1 in 10 Chinese will be Christian, mostly evangelicals worshipping outside the officially permitted churches (Protestant and, I believe, Catholic).

There is another reason which could explain the CCP’s tolerance of Christian activity. Social stability. If the property bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai were to burst China might have to sell its dollar reserves which would revalue the yuan and make its exports uncompetitive, thereby causing unemployment in China as well as stagflation in the West. This could precipitate social unrest in a country where expectations of ever rising living standards are high and where there are many fairly young unattached males. It could also cause upheaval in the West.

 A population at least nominally bound by John 13:34-35, even though comprising the whole spectrum of human nature, would, I suggest, be less prone to  slaughter than under  Mao Zedung (70 to 90 million died during the 1949 -1976  period of Mao , who 'boasted' that he had buried 46,000 scholars alive).

This is not just a matter of Christians being glad to see their faith thriving. It could be contributory, or even fundamental, to the way China interacts with the world in the future and moderates or prevents conflict at home.

John

Author, 2077 AD

Egypt and world peace

The latest trouble spot to hit the headlines is Egypt.  Various factions are demonstrating against the 29 year old Mubarak regime and against each other. From the BBC reports it does seem that the present government has been highly dictatorial, with ruthless killings and tortures of civilians as well as corruption in the police, possibly in a non-democratic attempt to keep non-democratic factions from winning power and abolishing even the semblance of democracy.

The main organised opposition is the Moslem Brotherhood.  Some western sources maintain this has moderated in recent years but it grew out of Islamic Jihad and was considered responsible for assassinating Mubarak’s predecessor, President Sadat, after he had negotiated a historic peace agreement with Israel, to which the Brotherhood is still ideologically opposed. If a Moslem converts to Christianity he or his family is likely to be victimised by the MB, even killed, although how common this is difficult to gauge on anecdotal evidence. Most worrying of all there is firm evidence of elements within the MB desiring an Islamic, non-democratic state and a world Caliphate, with all that this entails for the eclipsing of human rights.

The Brotherhood no doubt has some worthy people in it and has suffered injustices in the past; but we are in the present and at the very least there are serious doubts about the MB's overall objectives and the implications for world stability. If we value human rights and free speech we should be cautious. If any group tries to suppress these hard won attributes of western civilisation it can only mean violent conflict.

(It could be that the MB has indeed radically reformed itself. If so it would be wonderful news; but it's difficult to see how an MB-led government would negotiate flexibly with Israel and the West. However, as Nicholas Taleb argues in The Black Swan, history is full of the totally unexpected.)

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The Middle East is held in unstable equilibrium by a delicate balance of diplomatic pressure from the USA, Europe and other parts of the world. It is on a constant knife edge with chaos never far away. E.g. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain, not just Israel, fears Iran and even suggested that the US should bomb it (Wikileaks divulged this) ; Egypt and the UAE have referred to Iran as 'evil' and an 'existential threat'.  Sunni and Shia Moslem factions within Iraq are in seemingly endless internecine conflict, regardless of  how many innocent civilians are killed, even those worshipping in a mosque; Islamic Jihad is using the Yemen as a base; various political and Islamic groups in Palestine are competing, often violently, for power; many Jewish settlers are ideologically opposed to  giving up territory despite international pressure; most countries around Israel refuse to recognise its right to exist; and on top of this Israel has a nuclear capability, with Iran bent on matching this.

Egypt is the largest country in the Middle East with a population of 80 million and, though poor, is fully armed by the USA. What happens there in the next few days, especially if followed by similar upheavals in other Arab states, risks upsetting this precarious equilibrium with unpredictable consequences for world peace. Malevolent minorities are no doubt waiting their moment. It has happened repeatedly throughout history that determined minorities under the direction of those who enjoy dominating others almost for the pleasure of power itself succeed in gaining control over a directionless majority.

[The Knights of Peace as invented in 2077 AD would have located the points of potential instability using sociodynamic modelling, destroyed all ordnance,  non-violently removed the dominophiles (those who love to dominate) responsible for stirring up evil, engaged them in voluntary, interactive 'Enlightenment' and released them back into society even if they did not reform. But we live in 2011, not 2077.]

It is often remarked that the oil in Saudi Arabia and Iraq is a motive for the West to keep the whole area stable. This is at least partly true; but perhaps the people there should be pleased that strings are being pulled behind closed doors to keep it on an even keel. It doesn’t look as though anyone else is willing or even able to do it, and those working for peace are hamstrung by endemic corruption and even hostility from some elements of the western intelligentsia.

So let’s be realistic and recognise that keeping the peace in today’s world is a messy, thankless job. The leaders, advisers and diplomats involved need to have a good grounding in  history,  a strong ethical base and not allow the devious paths they have to follow to distract them from keeping the world in balance. Our peace and freedom depend on them.

John
author, 2077 AD

Bridging gaps

This blog is meant to reflect on how the world might move towards peace. However, a certain understanding needs to be reached to bridge the gap between followers of different faiths.

The classical, divinely inspired monotheistic faiths converge at source in that they emanate from one transcendental  Creator who reaches out to individuals, cultures and institutions at various times in human history and guides us forward spiritually and practically and confers meaning on our existence. This view, I maintain,  resides deep within the soul of the most holy, non-worldly people in all religions, the truly devout inner sanctum. My own faith in Christ as the source of  agape love and eternal life is strengthened by this recognition of God's omnipotence and omnipresence.

But there is one faith which does not converge at source with the others, because it has no divine wellspring: atheism. Here is a quote from River out of Eden by Richard Dawkins (1995), p.133

The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if, at bottom, there is no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference ...DNA neither knows nor cares. DNA just is. And we dance to its music. [My italics.]

If what he says is true, no creature would be created able to form concepts of evil, goodness or pity. Maybe Dr D’s views have evolved in the intervening period. In his defence I can’t really believe that he would continue to have such a self contradictory model of reality. I know my own views have changed (hopefully for the better) over the decades and not all atheists subscribe to the above.

In the interests of progress towards mutual understanding – a necessary precondition for peace in the material world - could one of my atheist or humanist brothers enlighten me, as a Christian, on the current world view of the atheist/humanist belief system, or at least of their own particular denomination within it? 

There is no denying the conflict which exists between followers of different religions, even if one leaves atheism out of it. It is hardly surprising since churches, mosques and temples are filled with human beings of varying degrees of spiritual enlightenment. However, I would argue that the religions all spring from a reality which cannot be ignored without dire consequences for us all, that human beings are intrinsically spiritual.  If we try to delete religion from the human experience we cut ourselves off from the elevating truths of a greater reality and drift into the clutches of whatever demagogue (Hitler, Stalin and Mao Tse Tung in modern times, collectively responsible for some 100 million deaths) tries to fill the spiritual vacuum, particularly in times of crisis.

However, God is merciful and, I believe, wants us to do the best we can with the world he has given us and recognises that many have become blinded to God's existence by excessive reductionism,  pride in human progress and judgement from within  man-made moral matrices.

Atheists believe there is no Creator; but they do, like the believer, want to rid the world of war. I am hoping this blog will be one focal point by which these two broad camps can understand and respect each other, and so work together to make war and violent conflict no more than a bad memory.

Comments on past posts have come from friends and contacts directly by email and I welcome these; but would prefer them to use the ‘comments’ facility below. However you choose to respond your feedback is the main driver of this blog.

see also

Fighting fatalism

John

Author, 2077 AD