At the time of writing, the Kofi Annan UN plan seems to have been accepted by Bashar al Assad and two powerful sympathising nations – China and Russia.
The disparate forces trying to depose him are so
disorganised that despite UN support and universal horror at the
bluntly applied brutality shown by Assad’s forces there seems little chance of the plan coming to fruition, except
possibly on a long term basis.
Only recently I became aware of his chemical weapons stockpile and this could be a large factor if he decides either to go
down fighting or to negotiate a safe passage and immunity. Even if he does not use them they could fall into the hands
of jihad groups hostile not only to the western world but to each other and to Coptic
Christians who, prior to the uprising, had been protected by Assad’s security
forces. Given the relative technological illiteracy of many of the fighting
groups involved the death and injury from chemcal weapons are more
likely be the result of tragic accidents than targeted mayhem.
However there may be a very significant factor which I had
almost forgotten about.
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| Image from Amazon site |
Not long after Saddam Hussein’s defeat a senior defector who
was the no.2 official in Sadam’s air force, General Georges Sada, wrote a book
(c.2005) about his time in Saddam’s high command. In this book Saddam’s Secrets it was claimed that shortly before (6 weeks or so) the
ill-considered 2002 invasion of Iraq Saddam had dispatched all his weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) to a secret location in Syria. A senior Israeli figure confirmed the report but the media
did not pick up on this at the time so I mentally put it to one side.
Recently more stories about this hitherto largely ignored
divulgence have begun to appear on the Internet and there seems to be
increasing acceptance that Syria does have a large stockpile of chemical
weapons, although it is still an open question whether this includes Saddam’s
former arsenal. Here is a fairly random selection of recent links:
If Assad has been storing Sadam’s WMDs it might be used by
him as a bargaining point in negotiations. Although Democrats and Republicans
have obvious party political motives in accepting or rejecting the rumours it
would probably be better for the USA as a nation to have its invasion of Iraq
at least partially vindicated. Whatever truth emerges concerning the presence
or otherwise of WMDs in Syria, there can be no justification for the political
leaders of the time riding rough-shod over the US military commanders as they
questioned the wisdom of trying to occupy a country with such a small army and
without intensive planning.
This blog is about peace and unfortunately, human nature
being what it is, one has to recognise that until we get the kind of world portrayed
in 2077 AD it may sometimes be necessary to fight towards it. All we can
do is fight in as humane a way as possible and try to hasten the day when it is
not necessary.
John
